Betting On The Future

Betting site odds favor GOP keeping control of House

Polls continue to predict a blue wave, albeit one that might be too small for surfers. But polls depend on constructing a model of the expected turnout and then finding respondents to match the model: a certain percentage of Republicans, independents, and Democrats. If the pollsters fail to accurately predict which kinds of voters will be motivated in an off-year election, their polls are useless. [Remember all the “Clinton is a shoe in” polls in 2016!]

The odds on MyBookie favor Republicans maintaining hold of their majority, even as political forecaster Nate Silver says there is an 84.9 percent chance of a Democratic victory.

Whom are you going to trust? The guys who got it wrong last time or the people who put their money where their mouths are?

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