Can Romney win?

Nov 2, 2012: 13% of Obama’s 2008 voters are defecting to Romney. 3% are undecided.

According to Karl Rove, people who are undecided at this point don’t vote for the incumbent. They’re just deciding between the opposition, someone else or not voting at all.

So, let’s say only 13% of Obama’s 2008 votes go to Romney and the other 3% go somewhere else, but not to Obama.

2008: Obama 70 million votes vs. McCain 60 million votes.

70 million x .13 = 9.1 million. Subtract that from Obama and add to Romney.

2012: Obama 60.9 million votes vs. Romney 69.1 million votes.

This doesn’t mean Romney’s a shoo-in so you can stay home from the polls. It means Romney’s got a real chance to take down Obama and you need to CRAWL to the polls if you have to and vote for him!

Sources:

http://ace.mu.nu/archives/334550.php

http://hotair.com/headlines/archives/2012/11/02/by-the-numbers-the-obama-defectors/

H/t Pistol Pete’s Grudge Report @ https://polination.wordpress.com/2012/11/05/the-eve-of-liberation-grudge/

1 Comment

Filed under Barack Obama, Elections, Mitt Romney

One response to “Can Romney win?

  1. GOOD MORNING! Didn’t make it to the polling place before 7am after all, but we were in the first less-than-twenty.

    1972, Nixon running for re-election. I wasn’t 21, but they had given me the vote. I was living in Little Rock and voted absentee. I asked my Republican campaigning aunt for advice on the candidates and she, of course, only said vote straight Republican party. There was no third-party candidate on my ballot then, IIRC. I was not happy with Dick and how his “secret plan to end Viet Nam” had gone, among other things. I sure wasn’t pro-McGovern. But in my state, certain things are sure, like a Republican win for Nixon 1972. So I voted for McGovern just to be a tiny protest against Nixon’s failures.

    In the ensuing decades, I voted many times like that, as frequently as I could for the Libertarian Party candidate, partly on small-L libertarian principles, partly so a viable third party could stay on the state ballot (although they lost that privilege years ago), partly to protest the two major parties, even if I favored one of them. I’ve probably voted “against” far more often than I’ve voted for. *cough* McCain *cough.* With rare exceptions, I’ve been able to say, don’t blame me, I voted for the other guy.

    Even though I once voted for the woman who said the government had planted a radio chip in her head, I do take the vote deadly seriously. Always, always, we looked at the individual candidates as closely as time permitted. I’ve voted for Democrats when the Republican was just too incompetent-seeming.

    This year, for the first time for either of us, both the mrs and I voted straight-party. I hope Aunt Pat is looking down from Heaven and smiling that, after four decades, I’ve finally taken her advice.

    As Wild Bill says, God bless America, again.

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