Nov 2, 2012: 13% of Obama’s 2008 voters are defecting to Romney. 3% are undecided.
According to Karl Rove, people who are undecided at this point don’t vote for the incumbent. They’re just deciding between the opposition, someone else or not voting at all.
So, let’s say only 13% of Obama’s 2008 votes go to Romney and the other 3% go somewhere else, but not to Obama.
2008: Obama 70 million votes vs. McCain 60 million votes.
70 million x .13 = 9.1 million. Subtract that from Obama and add to Romney.
2012: Obama 60.9 million votes vs. Romney 69.1 million votes.
This doesn’t mean Romney’s a shoo-in so you can stay home from the polls. It means Romney’s got a real chance to take down Obama and you need to CRAWL to the polls if you have to and vote for him!
H/t Pistol Pete’s Grudge Report @ https://polination.wordpress.com/2012/11/05/the-eve-of-liberation-grudge/