Ohioans have given their electoral votes to the winning candidate in every one of the last ten presidential elections.
In 2008, Obama won Ohio with +4.6. In 2004, Bush won Ohio with +2.1.
Today’s Real Clear Politics average has Obama at +2.3, but that includes a Quinnipiac poll at +5 that Karl Rove says uses the 2008 Democrat turnout numbers, which are unrealistic for this year.
Rasmussen shows Romney at +2. Obama 48% vs. Romney 50% vs. Other 1% vs. Undecided 1%.
As of Tuesday, Oct 30, early voters were stacking up with a much less favorable lead for Democrats than 2008.
530,813 of them have been Democrats (181,275 less than 2008)
448,357 of them have been Republicans (75,858 more than 2008)
Most observers expect Republicans to win Election Day turnout.
Most polls show Romney leading with Independents.