OHIO: Early voting report

Ohioans have given their electoral votes to the winning candidate in every one of the last ten presidential elections.

In 2008, Obama won Ohio with +4.6. In 2004, Bush won Ohio with +2.1.

Today’s Real Clear Politics average has Obama at +2.3, but that includes a Quinnipiac poll at +5 that Karl Rove says uses the 2008 Democrat turnout numbers, which are unrealistic for this year.

Rasmussen shows Romney at +2. Obama 48% vs. Romney 50% vs. Other 1% vs. Undecided 1%.

As of Tuesday, Oct 30, early voters were stacking up with a much less favorable lead for Democrats than 2008.

530,813 of them have been Democrats (181,275 less than 2008)
448,357 of them have been Republicans (75,858 more than 2008)

Most observers expect Republicans to win Election Day turnout.
Most polls show Romney leading with Independents.

Source:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204846304578090820229096046.html
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/oh/ohio_romney_vs_obama-1860.html
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/ohio/election_2012_ohio_president

3 Comments

Filed under Barack Obama, Democrats, Elections, Mitt Romney, Polls, Republicans

3 responses to “OHIO: Early voting report

  1. If you do not mind my saying, the stuff coming from Real Clear Politics is nonsense. Are they partisan? They certainly seem that way.

    It looks like Rasmussen continues to lead the one in being a little bit closer to reality.

    The thing about RCP is the use of polls that give Democrats an advantage they did not enjoy in 2010. This means that their polling is based upon incorrect input data and is entirely flawed.

    Like

    • chrissythehyphenated

      ITA … their averages are useless. They do serve one really useful function. They list polls in reverse chronological order and provide hot links to the available data. It’s the fastest way I’ve found to get the latest data.

      Like

      • I continue to think that their estimates for the ECV are also up the spout.

        Romney will take Ohio. The crowds that go to see him are an indication that Romney will take Ohio.

        RCP does not factor in enthusiasm. This is an important factor this year. The Dims are not enthusiastic.

        Like