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Polls in September and October of this year found 67% of registered voters under 30 claimed they were “absolutely certain” they would vote. Given that only one in four voted last time, that sounds like a lot.
But polls from the same period in 2008 put that “absolutely certain” number at 80%. Only 18% actually made it to the polls that year.
In addition, 10% more Romney than Obama youth voters say they will definitely vote this fall. If they shortfall by approximately the same amount, that 19 point lead isn’t going to get Obama many more total votes than Romney gets from this demographic.
Obama’s Support Among Young Voters Craters – Oct 19, 2012
H/t Pistol Pete