Sept 22 at Rasmussen

Rasmussen is running regular Obama vs. Romney polls nationally and in 11 key states won by Obama in 2008 and thought to be competitive in 2012. These states collectively hold 146 Electoral College votes.

In 2008, Obama won these states (Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin) by a combined margin of 53% to 46%, virtually identical to his national margin.

September 22, 2012: After modest post-convention bounces for both candidates, the race is now back to where it was at the beginning of the month. Numbers include Leaners, those who initially say they are uncommitted but who lean towards one of the candidates when asked a follow-up question.

NATIONAL    Obama 46% vs. Romney 46% vs. Undecided 5% vs. Other 3%
SWING         Obama 48% vs. Romney 47% vs. Undecided 5%



Filed under Barack Obama, Elections, Mitt Romney, Polls

6 responses to “Sept 22 at Rasmussen

  1. chrissythehyphenated

    Allahpundit’s latest confirms what Dearest and I have been saying to each other — i.e., that Romney has a winning game plan and will stick with it. I think this bodes well for his ability to stick to the “fix the country” agenda and not get sucked into the “pandering to the beltway” thing after he and Ryan take over in January.

    posted at 8:31 pm on September 22, 2012 by Allahpundit

    Earlier today, I spoke with several Romney advisers. They continue to shrug off the put-downs from critics who are calling for a shake-up. For example, they see Peggy Noonan’s column, which calls for Romney to bring in a Republican grandee as campaign manager, as mistaken…

    They’re tired of hearing about how things are disastrous, and they’re tired of hearing that Romney is stumbling and losing a winnable election. There is an ominous consensus among many advisers that between now and the election, they’ll never win great coverage, so it’s more important for Romney to spend time preparing for the debates, cutting ads, and holding rallies — not currying favor with pundits.

    Regarding the polls, Romney’s aides know that they are lagging behind in a handful of swing states. More than a few of them are especially concerned about Ohio, where Romney has struggled in the polls all year. But they point to Gallup’s national tracking poll, which shows the race tied, as evidence that things are fine, for the most part. They think the president is on the ropes since he’s not above 50 percent. “Voters are focused on different issues than the media,” a second adviser says.


  2. You might want to check out a site that has unskewed polls. All of the polls that are being used are skewed based upon 2008 figures which gives Obama an edge that is not present.

    When the data is unskewed there is a different result.

    Allahpundit is behaving like an eeyore. In fact I barely look at what he has to say because he is always so negative. Even that 47% thing was a bit of a joke.

    We see the same thing in Australia and we had the same thing happen with one Newspoll that had the government and coalition neck and neck. The only way that could happen after months of the Opposition being at least 10% ahead is if the poll was being skewed in some way. It is impossible to think that people would give our Prime Minister a pass when she is such a conniving individual.

    I suspect that internal polls are giving a very different picture especially in Ohio.


    • chrissythehyphenated

      I trust Rasmussen and Gallup. Obama tried to get Gallup to skew and they said no, so he sicced the DOJ on them.


      • I used to work for Gallup here in Australia aka Roy Morgan Research Centre. In those days the polls were done by going door to door. These days they use the telephone and to be honest I do not think that gets a very good result. It adds to the skewing effect.

        Rasmussen seems to be ok. However, do keep in mind that the polls are based on 2008 data. For that reason they are building in some bias.

        Gallup have always been professional, at least here in Australia, but that does not mean that they manage to skew results.

        The Newspoll over here is taken by McNair Anderson, the same group that does the TV ratings (and I have worked for McNair Anderson but in a different capacity – not on research)


        • GP

          we never hear much about what is happening down under. It would be great to hear more reports from you.


          • I write at my own blogs on the subject matter, and I do in fact make comments elsewhere.

            The only thing happening at the moment is that Australians are hopping mad and we want an election now, not in 12 months time.