Another dorky poll

August 2, 2012: Pew Poll gives Obama 51% vs. Romney 41% in “If election were today” question

BUT is Obama really ten points ahead?

Party Affiliation in Pew Sample vs. Gallup Party Affiliation Poll July 19-22, 2012 (most recent) = Skew

Republican 459 = 24.5% vs. 28% = minus 3.5 points

Independent 599 = 32% vs. 41% = minus 9 points

Democrat 813 = 43.5% vs. 30% = plus 13.5 points

Total 1871 = 100% showing 17 point skew toward Democrat over Republican

Calculating the Independent skew – With “Leaners”, Gallup reports Republican 47% vs. Democrat 45%

Republican 47% – 28% = 19 points from Independents = 43%

Democrat 45% – 30% = 15 points from Independents = 34%

Independent 41% – 31 points = 10 Independents with no Lean = 23%

Rough split of the minus 9 points worth of Independents between Republican, Democrat and No Lean:

Republican 4 vs. Democrat 2 vs. None 2

Assuming I’ve done the math right (not a good assumption, I assure you!), this adds another 2 points to the skew toward Democrat over Republican, for a whopping total of 19. That’s nearly double the lead they’re showing for Obama over Romney.

So, yeah, Obama’s ahead if you mostly only ask Obama voters who they’ll vote for. Duh.

Sources @

http://www.people-press.org/2012/08/02/romneys-personal-image-remains-negative/

http://www.gallup.com/poll/15370/Party-Affiliation.aspx

H/t to GP for heads up on this one.

If you enjoyed this, you might also like https://polination.wordpress.com/2012/07/02/some-good-news-for-our-side/

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Filed under Barack Obama, Democrats, Elections, Mitt Romney, Polls, Republicans

One response to “Another dorky poll

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