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In 2012, Ohio will be worth 18 electoral votes.
In 1980, Reagan won Ohio by 10.6%.
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In 2008, Obama won Ohio by 4.58%.
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Support for Romney has shown a slow, but steady increase.
Nov 2011: Obama 50% vs Romney 41%
Jan 2012: Obama 49% vs Romney 42%
May 2012: Obama 50% vs Romney 43%
Jun 2012: Obama 47% vs Romney 44%
Meanwhile, Obama’s approval numbers took a big hit in the past month.
May 2012: Obama Approval 48% vs Disapproval 48%
Jun 2012: Obama Approval 44% vs Disapproval 51%
His support among his own base dropped 5%.
May 2012: Obama Democrats 88%
Jun 2012: Obama Democrats 83%
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Sources:
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/05/obama-up-7-in-ohio.html
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_OH_062612.pdf