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BATTLEGROUNDS:
Florida (29): Obama won by a slim 2.8% margin and on May 3, 2012, Quinnipiac found Romney up by SIX! (Romney 47% vs. Obama 41%)
Ohio (18): Obama won by 4.6%. But on May 10, 2012, Quinnipiac found Obama up by only one. (Obama 45% vs. Romney 44%)
Pennsylvania (16): On May 21, 2012, Rasmussen had Obama up by six (Obama 47% vs. Romney 41%), but he won by 10.4% (Obama 54.7% vs. McCain 44.3%). Karl Rove believes Obama’s antipathy toward coal and problems with working-class whites and suburban independents could tip the balance.
Virginia (13): Obama won by a healthy 6%. However on April 25, 2012, Rasmussen found Romney up by one. (Romney 45% vs. Obama 44%)
Wisconsin (10): Obama won by 13.9%. In April, a Marquette poll (Likely Voters) found Obama’s up by four, but this week, he and Romney are TIED.
Colorado (9): On April 23, 2012, a Purple Strategies Poll (Likely Voters) showed Obama and Romney tied at 47% each.
Iowa (6): The most recent poll shows Obama up by ten, but Team Obama is targeting Ohio for special attention with TV ads, which suggests they’re worried.
Nevada (6): Latest poll (Rasmussen) shows Obama up by eight. But Nevada has the nation’s highest unemployment rate (11.7%).
New Hampshire (4): The polls are all over the place. The spread goes from Obama ahead by 12 to Romney ahead by 10. In 2004, Kerry won by only 1%.
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Breakdown of electoral vote changes due to 2010 Census
DARK RED States (McCain): Arizona +1, Georgia +1, South Carolina +1, Texas +4, Utah +1
LIGHT RED States (McCain): Louisiana -1, Missouri -1
SWING States (Obama): Florida +2, Nevada +1, Ohio -2
LIGHT BLUE States (Obama): Iowa -1
DARK BLUE States (Obama): Illinois -1, Massachusetts -1, Michigan -1, New Jersey -1, New York -2, Pennsylvania -1, Washington +1
Votes in last 4 Presidential Elections:
Dark Red GOP 4, Light Red GOP 3, Swing 2 & 2, Light Blue DNC 3, Dark Blue DNC 4
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Sources:
Which States Gained and Lost Electoral Votes
http://usgovinfo.about.com/od/thepoliticalsystem/a/2012-Electoral-Votes-By-State.htm
Rasmussen (Likely Voters) Daily Presidential Tracking Poll
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll
Rasmussen Virginia Matchup – April 25, 2012
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/virginia/election_2012_virginia_president
Quinnipiac Ohio Matchup (Registered Voters) – May 10, 2012
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/ohio/release-detail?ReleaseID=1746
Quinnipiac Florida Matchup – May 3, 2012
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2012/05/23/romney_leads_obama_in_florida_114250.html
Rasmussen Pennsylvania Matchup – May 23, 2012
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/pennsylvania/election_2012_pennsylvania_president
2008 Presidential Election Results in Pennsylvania
http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/election2008/pa.htm
Marquette (Likely Voters) Wisconsin Matchup – May 16, 2012
https://law.marquette.edu/poll/2012/05/16/marquette-law-school-poll-shows-walker-kleefisch-lead-in-recall/
Statewide opinion polling for US presidential election 2012
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election,_2012
Purple Predictors
http://www.purplestrategies.com/wp-content/uploads/AprilPurplePoll_v9.pdf
Real Clear Politics New Hampshire poll summary
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/nh/new_hampshire_romney_vs_obama-2030.html#polls
Rove: Romney’s Roads to the White House By Karl Rove – May 23, 2012
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304840904577422200571363734.html