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Florida (29): Obama won by a slim 2.8% margin and on May 3, 2012, Quinnipiac found Romney up by SIX! (Romney 47% vs. Obama 41%)
Ohio (18): Obama won by 4.6%. But on May 10, 2012, Quinnipiac found Obama up by only one. (Obama 45% vs. Romney 44%)
Pennsylvania (16): On May 21, 2012, Rasmussen had Obama up by six (Obama 47% vs. Romney 41%), but he won by 10.4% (Obama 54.7% vs. McCain 44.3%). Karl Rove believes Obama’s antipathy toward coal and problems with working-class whites and suburban independents could tip the balance.
Virginia (13): Obama won by a healthy 6%. However on April 25, 2012, Rasmussen found Romney up by one. (Romney 45% vs. Obama 44%)
Wisconsin (10): Obama won by 13.9%. In April, a Marquette poll (Likely Voters) found Obama’s up by four, but this week, he and Romney are TIED.
Colorado (9): On April 23, 2012, a Purple Strategies Poll (Likely Voters) showed Obama and Romney tied at 47% each.
Iowa (6): The most recent poll shows Obama up by ten, but Team Obama is targeting Ohio for special attention with TV ads, which suggests they’re worried.
Nevada (6): Latest poll (Rasmussen) shows Obama up by eight. But Nevada has the nation’s highest unemployment rate (11.7%).
New Hampshire (4): The polls are all over the place. The spread goes from Obama ahead by 12 to Romney ahead by 10. In 2004, Kerry won by only 1%.
Breakdown of electoral vote changes due to 2010 Census
DARK RED States (McCain): Arizona +1, Georgia +1, South Carolina +1, Texas +4, Utah +1
LIGHT RED States (McCain): Louisiana -1, Missouri -1
SWING States (Obama): Florida +2, Nevada +1, Ohio -2
LIGHT BLUE States (Obama): Iowa -1
DARK BLUE States (Obama): Illinois -1, Massachusetts -1, Michigan -1, New Jersey -1, New York -2, Pennsylvania -1, Washington +1
Votes in last 4 Presidential Elections:
Dark Red GOP 4, Light Red GOP 3, Swing 2 & 2, Light Blue DNC 3, Dark Blue DNC 4
Which States Gained and Lost Electoral Votes
Rasmussen (Likely Voters) Daily Presidential Tracking Poll
Rasmussen Virginia Matchup – April 25, 2012
Quinnipiac Ohio Matchup (Registered Voters) – May 10, 2012
Quinnipiac Florida Matchup – May 3, 2012
Rasmussen Pennsylvania Matchup – May 23, 2012
2008 Presidential Election Results in Pennsylvania
Marquette (Likely Voters) Wisconsin Matchup – May 16, 2012
Statewide opinion polling for US presidential election 2012
Real Clear Politics New Hampshire poll summary
Rove: Romney’s Roads to the White House By Karl Rove – May 23, 2012