By Chrissy the Hyphenated
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The 2010 Census resulted in a net of 6 electoral votes shifting from states that voted for Obama to states that voted for McCain.
The 2008 electoral votes were based on the 2000 census, so one might conclude that a lot of the 2010 population shift had already occurred in 2008.
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Still, Obama had 365 v McCain’s 173 … changing six brings it to 359 v 179. Hardly a game changer.
But let’s look now at the nine states that went for Obama in 2008, but in 2009 and 2010, expressed their sharp disapproval for Democrat leadership by switching their governerships from Democrat to Republican (numbers are 2008 electoral votes for Obama).
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- 27 Florida
- 21 Pennsylvania
- 20 Ohio
- 17 Michigan
- 15 New Jersey
- 10 Wisconsin
- 7 Iowa
- 5 New Mexico
- 4 Maine
Those add up to 126.
359 – 126 = 233.
It takes 270 to win.
And another thing …
Roughly half of Young Voters have college degrees. Only 17% of these voted for McCain in 2008, but 80% of these say they’ll likely vote GOP again in 2012. The picture for Democrats hanging on to a majority of the College Educated Youth Vote is not nearly so rosy.
Today’s college youth polled:
- 38% – The GOP is “doing a good job addressing and engaging with young professionals”
- 58% – Will consider voting for GOP candidates who are “doing a good job addressing and engaging with young professionals”
Why the switch? Maybe because “Yes, we can” has proven to be “No, I couldn’t.”
- 60% are concerned about meeting their current bills and obligations.
- 60% have not been able to find a full-time job in their preferred area.
- 58% worry about affording a place to live
- 56% worry about affording health care
- 46% of those in the workforce are concerned about losing their job
- 46% are concerned they won’t be able to live in the city or town they want to
- 45% say their financial situation is bad
- 25% are in debt
- 20% have taken jobs far from their training
- 17% are dependent on their parents
The majority say they approve of Obama’s job performance, but when asked about his handling of specific issues, they consistently say they disapprove.
- 56% disapprove of Obama’s handling of the federal budget deficit
- 55% disapprove of Obama’s handling of Iran
- 54% disapprove of Obama’s handling of Afghanistan
- 53% disapprove of Obama’s handling of health care
- 51% disapprove of Obama’s handling of the economy
This suggests their “approve of Obama” has more to do with
“He’s black and I don’t want to appear racist.”
than with any realistic assessment of how he’s performing or whether they would vote for him in 2012.
SOURCES for college educated young demographic poll results: